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Dec 31, 2024
Open Lending Q4 2024 Earnings Report
Open Lending reported a significant net loss and negative revenue in Q4 2024, driven by a major adjustment to profit share estimates.
Key Takeaways
In Q4 2024, Open Lending experienced a dramatic swing to negative revenue and a substantial net loss due to a downward adjustment in estimated profit share revenues. Despite stable program fees and a consistent number of certified loans, macroeconomic challenges and vintage underperformance severely impacted financials.
Total revenue dropped to -$56.9 million due to an $81.3 million negative adjustment in profit share revenue.
Net loss widened to $144.4 million from $4.8 million in Q4 2023.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at -$73.1 million, significantly worse than the -$2.1 million a year ago.
Certified loans held steady at 26,065, close to the 26,263 reported in Q4 2023.
Revenue by Segment
Forward Guidance
Open Lending expects certified loans to increase modestly in Q1 2025 and continues to adjust profit share expectations in response to vintage underperformance.
Positive Outlook
- Q1 2025 certified loan volume projected between 27,000 and 28,000
- Stable program fee revenue despite macroeconomic headwinds
- Continued strong cash position of $243 million
- Proactive adjustments to forecast improve long-term visibility
- Identification of underperforming borrower cohorts informs future underwriting
Challenges Ahead
- Major $81.3 million downward adjustment to profit share revenue
- Valuation allowance on deferred tax assets increased income tax expense by $86.1 million
- Elevated delinquencies and defaults in 2021-2024 vintages
- Net loss of $144.4 million significantly worse than prior year
Revenue & Expenses
Visualization of income flow from segment revenue to net income
Historical Earnings Impact
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Avg. Return Before/After Earnings
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