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Mar 31, 2020

Peloton Q3 2020 Earnings Report

Peloton's revenue and subscriber base grew significantly, driven by increased demand during the COVID-19 crisis, while also raising full-year guidance.

Key Takeaways

Peloton Interactive, Inc. reported a 66% increase in total revenue to $524.6 million for Q3 2020, driven by a 94% growth in Connected Fitness Subscribers, which reached over 886,100. The company's average net monthly connected fitness churn was 0.46%, and total members grew to over 2.6 million. Despite a net loss of $55.6 million, adjusted EBITDA was $23.5 million, representing a 4.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. Peloton raised its FY2020 guidance, expecting 1.04 million to 1.05 million ending Connected Fitness Subscribers and $1.72 billion to $1.74 billion in total revenue.

Total revenue increased by 66% to $524.6 million.

Ending Connected Fitness Subscribers grew by 94% to over 886,100.

Average Net Monthly Connected Fitness Churn was 0.46%, the lowest level in four years.

Adjusted EBITDA was $23.5 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA Margin of 4.5%.

Total Revenue
$525M
Previous year: $317M
+65.6%
EPS
-$0.2
Previous year: -$0.165
+21.0%
Ending Paid Fitness Subs
886.1K
Previous year: 457.1K
+93.9%
Avg. Monthly Churn
0.46%
Previous year: 0.68%
-32.4%
Gross Profit
$246M
Previous year: $121M
+103.8%
Cash and Equivalents
$509M
Free Cash Flow
-$45.4M
Total Assets
$2.57B

Peloton

Peloton

Peloton Revenue by Segment

Forward Guidance

Peloton provided Q4 and full fiscal year 2020 business outlook, including revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Positive Outlook

  • Expects $500 million to $520 million in total revenue for Q4, representing 128% growth at the midpoint.
  • Projects $55 million to $65 million in Adjusted EBITDA for Q4, with an 11.8% Adjusted EBITDA Margin at the midpoint.
  • Anticipates subscription contribution margin of 63.0% to 64.0% for Q4.
  • Expects better Connected Fitness reactivations and elevated levels of Member engagement to continue.
  • Forecasts $1.72 billion to $1.74 billion in total revenue for full fiscal year 2020, an 89% growth at the midpoint.

Challenges Ahead

  • Anticipates elongated order-to-delivery windows due to unexpected sharp increase in sales.
  • Expects Connected Fitness Product Gross Margin to decline year-over-year to 40.0% to 41.0% due to additional shipping costs and COVID-19 related costs.
  • Assumes Tread sales will not resume prior to the end of fiscal year 2020.
  • Expects to not materially improve order-to-delivery windows before the end of Q4.
  • The unexpected sharp increase in sales has created an imbalance of supply and demand in many geographies.

Revenue & Expenses

Visualization of income flow from segment revenue to net income