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Mar 31, 2020

AFG Q1 2020 Earnings Report

American Financial Group reported a net loss for Q1 2020, impacted by non-core items, while core operating earnings decreased slightly year-over-year.

Key Takeaways

American Financial Group, Inc. reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $301 million ($3.34 per share loss) for the first quarter of 2020, compared to earnings of $329 million ($3.63 per share) for the first quarter of 2019. Core net operating earnings were $171 million ($1.88 per share) for the first quarter of 2020, compared to $184 million ($2.02 per share) in the first quarter of 2019. The results were impacted by after-tax non-core items and adjustments to investments marked to market.

Net loss per share was $3.34, including a $5.22 per share loss in after-tax non-core items.

Core net operating earnings were $1.88 per share, including a $0.08 per share loss from investments marked-to-market through core operating earnings.

First quarter annualized ROE was (23.1%), while core operating ROE was 13.2%.

Parent company cash was $485 million post April debt offering; excess capital of $610 million at March 31, 2020.

Total Revenue
$1.21B
Previous year: $1.17B
+3.1%
EPS
$1.88
Previous year: $2.02
-6.9%
Gross Profit
$1.28B
Previous year: $2.02B
-37.0%
Cash and Equivalents
$1.31B
Previous year: $2B
-34.8%
Total Assets
$68B
Previous year: $66.1B
+2.8%

AFG

AFG

AFG Revenue by Segment

Forward Guidance

AFG continues to expect its 2020 core net operating earnings per share excluding MTM investments to be in the range of $6.45 to $7.25.

Positive Outlook

  • Recent opportunistic purchases of fixed income securities will have a positive impact on core operating earnings.
  • More aggressive renewal rate actions on annuity policies near or after the end of their surrender charge period will have a positive impact on core operating earnings.
  • Specialty P&C Group performed exceptionally well during the first quarter, with excellent underwriting margins.
  • Healthy year-over-year growth in net written premiums.
  • Very strong renewal pricing that is exceeding objectives.

Challenges Ahead

  • Lower short-term interest rates will have a negative impact on the Annuity Segment’s approximately $4.1 billion net investment in cash and floating rate securities.
  • Decline in property and casualty premiums as compared to original expectations.
  • COVID-19 is expected to have a much bigger impact on sales in the second quarter, and possibly beyond.
  • Net written premiums are expected to be down 8% to 14% when compared to the $5.3 billion reported in 2019, primarily due to the run-off of Neon.
  • Uncertainty of the implications of COVID-19 and the resulting volatility in the financial markets.

Revenue & Expenses

Visualization of income flow from segment revenue to net income