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Mar 31, 2025
Vistra Q1 2025 Earnings Report
Vistra reported a net loss of $268 million and achieved adjusted EBITDA of $1.24 billion in Q1 2025.
Key Takeaways
Vistra experienced a GAAP net loss of $268 million primarily due to unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivatives, but delivered strong adjusted EBITDA of $1.24 billion supported by robust retail and wholesale performance and contributions from the Energy Harbor acquisition.
Q1 2025 GAAP net loss was $268 million, driven by unrealized derivative losses.
Adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations reached $1.24 billion, a 53% increase YoY.
Retail and wholesale segments saw strong performance, aided by Energy Harbor results.
Company reaffirmed full-year guidance ranges for Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FCFbG.
Forward Guidance
Vistra reaffirmed its 2025 guidance ranges for Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted FCFbG, supported by full hedging of expected 2025 generation volumes and 90% for 2026.
Positive Outlook
- 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range reaffirmed at $5.5B–$6.1B.
- 2025 Adjusted FCFbG guidance range reaffirmed at $3.0B–$3.6B.
- Approximately 100% of 2025 generation volumes hedged.
- Approximately 90% of 2026 generation volumes hedged.
- Midpoint opportunity for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA exceeds $6B.
Challenges Ahead
- Unrealized mark-to-market losses significantly impacted net income.
- No upward revision to full-year guidance despite strong Q1.
- Higher interest expenses affected bottom line.
- Ongoing volatility in energy markets poses risk.
Historical Earnings Impact
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Avg. Return Before/After Earnings
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