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Dec 31, 2022
Vistra Q4 2022 Earnings Report
Vistra reported solid results in Q4 2022, showcasing the benefits of an integrated company.
Key Takeaways
Vistra Corp. reported its full-year 2022 financial results, with solid performance in the fourth quarter. The company's generation fleet met the demand during Winter Storm Elliott, and Vistra exceeded its initial goal of returning capital to shareholders by year-end 2022.
Vistra wrapped up a strong 2022 by delivering solid results in the fourth quarter.
The company's generation fleet met the demand of extreme retail load swings as Winter Storm Elliott gripped several geographic areas of the country during the last few days of the year
Vistra was able to lock-in significant earnings potential with the comprehensive hedging program in a volatile pricing environment, which we now look forward to executing against in 2023 with our Adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint reaffirmed at $3,700 million.
Vistra exceeded its initial goal of returning capital to shareholders by year-end 2022, completing approximately $2.25 billion in share repurchases since Nov. 2021, versus the initial goal of $2.0 billion, and paying $300 million in dividends over the course of 2022
Forward Guidance
Vistra reaffirmed its 2023 guidance ranges of Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $3,400 million to $4,000 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG of $1,750 million to $2,350 million. The midpoint of 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $3,700 million, which is the top of the potential Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity range Vistra announced in the first quarter of 2022. The midpoint of the 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance range is $2,050 million.
Positive Outlook
- Reaffirmed 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $3,400 million to $4,000 million.
- Reaffirmed 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance of $1,750 million to $2,350 million.
- The midpoint of 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $3,700 million.
- The midpoint of the 2023 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG guidance range is $2,050 million.
- Hedging program and forward price curves as of Feb. 23, 2023 continue to support its 2023 guidance ranges as well as Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunities in the estimated range of $3,500 million to $3,700 million in 2024 and 2025.
Challenges Ahead
- Adverse changes in general economic or market conditions.
Historical Earnings Impact
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Avg. Return Before/After Earnings
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