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Dec 31, 2023
Sunrun Q4 2023 Earnings Report
Sunrun reported financial results, highlighting storage capacity installed exceeding guidance and positive cash generation.
Key Takeaways
Sunrun reported Q4 2023 results with storage capacity installations exceeding guidance, reaching 219.7 Megawatt hours, and a storage attachment rate of 45%. The company generated $11 million in cash and reiterated its cash generation outlook for 2024.
Storage capacity installed reached 219.7 Megawatt hours, exceeding guidance and growing 154% year-over-year.
Storage attachment rates hit 45% of installations in Q4, with recent rates reaching approximately 48% on new sales.
Net Subscriber Value was $13,445 in Q4, an increase of $2,414 from Q3 and exceeding guidance.
Cash Generation was $11 million in Q4, reiterating the cash generation outlook for 2024.
Sunrun
Sunrun
Sunrun Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Customer Agreements and Incentives Revenue
CapyFin.comSolar Energy Systems and Product Sales Revenue
CapyFin.com Forward Guidance
Sunrun expects Storage Capacity Installed to be in a range of 800 to 1,000 Megawatt hours for the full-year 2024. Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of approximately 971 to 1,073 Megawatts for the full-year 2024. Management is reiterating guidance of positive Cash Generation cumulatively from 4Q 2023 through 4Q 2024 and to reach an annualized Cash Generation run-rate of $200 million to $500 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Positive Outlook
- Storage Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of 800 to 1,000 Megawatt hours the full-year 2024.
- Storage Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of 160 to 170 Megawatt hours in the first quarter of 2024.
- Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of approximately 971 to 1,073 Megawatts for the full-year 2024.
- Total Value Generated is expected to grow by over 15% for the full-year 2024 driven by higher Subscriber Values and lower input costs.
- Management is reiterating guidance of positive Cash Generation cumulatively from 4Q 2023 through 4Q 2024 and to reach an annualized Cash Generation run-rate of $200 million to $500 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Challenges Ahead
- Solar Energy Capacity Installed is expected to be in a range of 165 to 175 Megawatts in the first quarter of 2024.
- This range represents a decline of approximately 23% to 27% from the fourth quarter, as volumes are typically seasonally lower in the first quarter owing to the timing of sales activities and weather-related limitations on installations.
- Net Subscriber Value is expected to be sequentially lower in Q1, following typical seasonal patterns owing to fixed cost absorption and timing of sales activities and volume recognition.
- More favorable cost absorption, an increasing mix of storage, meaningful hardware cost deflation tailwinds and forthcoming ITC adder value is expected to provide material uplift to our Net Subscriber Values in Q2 through Q4 of 2024.
- Management expects Net Subscriber Value to reach levels during 2024 which exceed the realized amount in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Revenue & Expenses
Visualization of income flow from segment revenue to net income