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Sep 30
Warrior Met Coal Q3 2025 Earnings Report
Warrior Met Coal reported a decrease in net income and Adjusted EBITDA, despite increased sales and production volumes, primarily due to weaker steelmaking coal market conditions and lower average net selling prices.
Key Takeaways
Warrior Met Coal experienced a challenging third quarter in 2025, with net income falling to $36.6 million and Adjusted EBITDA to $70.6 million, down from the prior year. This decline was largely attributed to significantly weaker steelmaking coal market conditions, including depressed global steel demand and excess supply. However, the company achieved record sales volumes of 2.4 million short tons and increased production volumes by 17%, driven by the early commencement of longwall operations at its Blue Creek mine, which was eight months ahead of schedule and on budget. The company also secured a federal coal lease acquisition, enhancing its long-term growth strategy.
Net income for Q3 2025 was $36.6 million, a decrease from $41.8 million in Q3 2024.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $70.6 million, down from $78.5 million in Q3 2024.
Sales volumes increased by 27% to a record 2.4 million short tons, and production volumes rose by 17% to 2.2 million short tons, primarily due to the Blue Creek mine.
The average net selling price decreased by 21% to $135.87 per short ton, reflecting weaker steelmaking coal market conditions.
Warrior Met Coal
Warrior Met Coal
Forward Guidance
Warrior Met Coal has updated and increased its full-year 2025 production and sales volume guidance by approximately 10% due to the accelerated startup of the Blue Creek longwall. The company is also lowering its guidance range for cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton to reflect recent trends. Total Blue Creek project capital expenditures are expected to be between $995 million and $1.075 billion, with remaining amounts primarily spent by the end of Q1 2026.
Positive Outlook
- Increased full-year production volume guidance by approximately 10%.
- Increased full-year sales volume guidance by approximately 10%.
- Lowered guidance range for cash cost of sales (free-on-board port) per short ton.
- Blue Creek longwall operations commenced eight months ahead of schedule and on budget.
- Acquisition of federal coal leases enhances long-term growth strategy and reserve base.
Challenges Ahead
- Guidance is subject to risks such as global trade and tariff uncertainties.
- Market conditions in the steel and steelmaking coal industries could impact performance.
- Overall global economic and competitive conditions pose risks.
- Significant capital expenditures remain for the Blue Creek project, primarily by Q1 2026.
- Regulatory and administrative steps are still required before entering a lease agreement for federal coal leases.