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Dec 31, 2024
Warrior Met Coal Q4 2024 Earnings Report
Warrior Met Coal reported its fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, meeting or exceeding all guidance targets for the full year.
Key Takeaways
Warrior Met Coal reported a significant decrease in net income and adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, primarily due to lower steelmaking coal prices. Despite this, the company achieved increased sales and production volumes, with Mine 4 reaching record annual production. The Blue Creek growth project began production on time and on budget, contributing to the year's output.
Net income for Q4 2024 was $1.1 million, a significant decrease from $128.9 million in Q4 2023.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $53.2 million, down from $163.7 million in Q4 2023.
Sales volumes increased by 23% to 1.9 million short tons in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023.
The Blue Creek growth project commenced production on time and on budget, producing 209 thousand short tons for the year.
Forward Guidance
Warrior Met Coal's 2025 outlook anticipates continued strong production and sales volumes, with a focus on the Blue Creek project's development and contribution, despite expected weak market conditions.
Positive Outlook
- Coal sales projected between 8.2 - 9.0 million short tons.
- Coal production projected between 7.8 - 8.6 million short tons.
- Blue Creek project expected to contribute approximately 1.0 million short tons of High Vol A steelmaking coal in 2025.
- Preparation plant expected to be completed in mid-2025, with longwall startup no later than Q2 2026.
- Sustaining capital expenditures for existing mines projected between $90 - $100 million.
Challenges Ahead
- Three planned longwall moves (one in Q2 and two in Q3) may impact production.
- HCC index pricing, geography of sales, and freight rates are key factors that may affect outlook.
- Exclusion of other non-recurring costs from guidance.
Historical Earnings Impact
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