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Sep 30, 2023

AFG Q3 2023 Earnings Report

American Financial Group reported third quarter results, highlighted by strong underwriting results and increased investment income.

Key Takeaways

American Financial Group reported a strong third quarter with net earnings of $177 million, or $2.09 per share. Core net operating earnings increased to $208 million, or $2.45 per share, driven by higher net investment income. The company's Specialty P&C operations achieved a combined ratio of 92.2%.

Net earnings per share of $2.09; includes ($0.36) per share in after-tax non-core items

Core net operating earnings $2.45 per share, an increase of 9% from the prior year period

Third quarter annualized ROE of 15.7%; annualized core operating ROE of 18.3%

Board of Directors declares $1.50 per share special dividend, payable November 22, 2023

Total Revenue
$2.16B
Previous year: $1.77B
+22.5%
EPS
$2.45
Previous year: $2.24
+9.4%
Book Value per Share
$47.3
Previous year: $46.2
+2.4%
Gross Profit
$2.16B
Previous year: $1.98B
+9.1%
Cash and Equivalents
$14.8B
Previous year: $14.3B
+3.3%
Total Assets
$30.8B
Previous year: $14.3B
+115.2%

AFG

AFG

AFG Revenue by Segment

Forward Guidance

AFG expects 2023 core net operating earnings to be in the range of $10.15 to $11.15 per share. This reflects expectations of a below average crop year, offset by higher-than-previously expected net investment income. At the midpoint of the range, the revised guidance would produce a core return on equity of approximately 20%.

Positive Outlook

  • Expects 2023 core net operating earnings to be in the range of $10.15 to $11.15 per share
  • Expectations of higher-than-previously expected net investment income.
  • Guidance would produce a core return on equity of approximately 20%.
  • Anticipate opportunities to expand specialty niche businesses through acquisitions and start-ups
  • Expect net written premiums to be 6% to 8% higher than the $6.2 billion reported in 2022

Challenges Ahead

  • Expectations of a below average crop year
  • Core earnings per share guidance excludes non-core items such as realized gains and losses
  • Higher frequency of catastrophe losses during the quarter
  • A&E charge to increase its liabilities for environmental exposures by $15 million
  • After-tax unrealized losses related to fixed maturities were $555 million

Revenue & Expenses

Visualization of income flow from segment revenue to net income